How’d I Do on This Year’s Oscars?

With this year’s Academy Awards ceremony behind us, it’s time to take a look at how I did on my predictions for the winners in this annual competition, as first outlined in my previous blog, “Who Will Win This Year's Oscars?”, posted on February 7. This was a difficult season to handicap, but I was generally pleased with the results, even when I was wrong in my predictions.

So how did I do? Four out of six correct calls, with two misses (and qualified ones at that). Here are the details:

Best Picture

 

Projected Winner:  “Roma”

Actual Winner:  “Green Book”

Result:  Missed call (sort of)

This has become the most difficult category to call in recent years, largely because it’s been hard to discern the mind of the Academy voters. What’s more, there were four films actively in the running for this award, based on the results from competitions leading up to the Oscars. Going in, “Roma,” “Green Book,” “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “Black Panther” all had legitimate shots.

In my predictions blog, I called “Roma” the winner for a variety of reasons. However, much to my surprise, on awards night, the statue went to “Green Book,” which seemed more like a long shot than a shoo-in among the leading contenders.

Not that I’m disappointed with the choice; after all, “Green Book” was the No. 2 film on my list of 2018’s top 10. Even though many onlookers and critics have been inexplicably disappointed by the choice, I’m pleased that Oscar voters recognized this picture’s many strengths and made the right decision, picking the film that deserved to win. After all, there were precedents for this film, having taken top honors from the National Board of Review and at the Golden Globe Awards.

To my own credit, ahem, I did say that “Green Book” was the nominee that should win. So, given that this ended up being the case, I’ll gladly take a half-credit on this one (because I can!). Maybe I’ll get the mood of the voters right in future years.

Best Actor

[caption id="attachment_10269" align="alignnone" width="300"]Rami Malek. Photo by Alex Bailey @ 2018 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation. [/caption]

Projected Winner:  Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Actual Winner:  Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Result:  Correct call

This was a two-horse race between Rami Malek and Christian Bale for “Vice.” Initially they were splitting the accolades in the run-up to the Oscars, but, in recent weeks, Malek began to pull away. It’s not much of a surprise, then, that he came across the finish line first.

Best Actress

[caption id="attachment_10328" align="alignnone" width="300"]Olivia Colman. Photo by Yorgos Lanthimos, © 2018 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation. [/caption]

Projected Winner:  Glenn Close, “The Wife”

Actual Winner:  Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”

Result:  Missed call (sort of)

By all accounts, this looked like it was finally going to be Glenn Close’s year. Having won virtually everything leading up to the Oscars, and having seemingly been a sentimental favorite with six previous nominations and no wins, it appeared the seventh time would be the charm for her fine performance in “The Wife.” Not so. The statue went to Olivia Colman for her brilliant portrayal of England’s Queen Anne in “The Favourite.”

However, even though my prediction was incorrect, this was another case where I was not disappointed with the result. Colman was the nominee who I said should win, and thankfully she did (I’ll take another half-credit on this one, thank you very much). While it must have been disappointing for Close to be passed over yet again, I’m pleased that Academy voters recognized the truly best performance in this category.

So how did I miss on this one? I suspect that it was due to a momentum shift that took place at the BAFTA Awards in early February, where Colman bested Close for the best actress award, the first time that had happened during awards season. Based on results in other acting categories in recent years, it seems that the BAFTAs are an awards competition to watch, since this contest seems to be where momentum shifts, if any, occur. Something to bear in mind for future prediction blogs!

Best Supporting Actor

[caption id="attachment_10302" align="alignnone" width="300"]Mahershala Ali. Photo courtesy of Universal Pictures, Participant Media and DreamWorks. [/caption]

Projected Winner:  Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”

Actual Winner:  Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”

Result:  Correct call

This was pretty much a no-brainer. Ali had won virtually everything leading up to the Oscars, and he was truly the class of the field (even though he had formidable competition from all of his fellow nominees). It was good to see another deserving performance take home the win.

Best Supporting Actress

[caption id="attachment_10403" align="alignnone" width="300"]Regina King.  Photo by Tatum Mangus/Annapurna Pictures © 2018 Annapurna Releasing, LLC.[/caption]

Projected Winner:  Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Actual Winner:  Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Result:  Correct call

This was a difficult category to handicap, as it could have conceivably gone to any of the nominees (and it wasn’t an especially strong lineup of candidates). King had the early season momentum, but it was unclear if she’d be able to hold onto it, given that she wasn’t even nominated in the last two major competitions before the Oscars. In the end, though, it seems she had enough gas left in the tank to hold on and take home the prize.

Best Director

 

Projected Winner:  Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”

Actual Winner:  Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”

Result:  Correct call

This was another no-brainer. Having won everything leading up to the Oscars, this was his award to lose. Even though I believed there were other more worthy candidates, such as Yorgos Lanthimos for “The Favorite,” this was Cuarón’s year, and his win proved that.

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Copyright © 2018, by Brent Marchant. All rights reserved.